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Strategic risk intelligence: stay ahead in a complex threat landscape
Manage complex risks with teams who have operated against sophisticated threats for decades
We combine elite strategic and operational talent with next-generation AI technology to maximise value and deter risks for our customers.
A unique synthesis of expertise, technology, and proprietary data packages to deliver highly competitive intelligence-as-a-service
" We saved an estimated $1.2m investment that may have put our organization at risk,
all due to the detailed risk intelligence assessment conducted by Adarga. "
- U.S. Defense Contractor
SERVICES TAILORED TO YOUR UNIQUE INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY NEEDS
We integrate strategic planning, proprietary tactics, and advanced risk mitigation methodologies that are adapted to our customers' unique requirements and operating environment.
We offer:
- Due Diligence Research
- Special Projects / Activities
- National Security Studies
- Data Acquisition Services
- Private Investigations
- Geopolitical Risk Research
BRING OUR ELITE INTELLIGENCE EXPERTISE IN-HOUSE
We combine world-class data science and engineering expertise with subject matter experts who have served throughout allied government, allied military, and the private sector managing sensitive operations and safeguarding highly classified projects.
INTELLIGENCE AUGMENTED BY AI-DRIVEN CAPABILITIES
Adarga’s powerful AI capabilities, including Adarga Vantage, give our team a unique edge. These capabilities allow us to explore the widest possible range of data, to work faster, and to gain a depth and breadth of intelligence that’s only possible through the harnessing of technology. This enables us to deliver a higher quality of outputs than through manual analysis processes alone.
Leveraging Adarga's AI tools and proprietary data sets
Underpinning our services capability is access to our unique AI tools, designed for intelligence use-cases across the public and private sector.
We have also built one of the largest curated data sets of its kind, offering unique, quantifiable insights into geopolitical risks.
U.S. Government Agency
" The product you produced was incredible "
U.S. Government Agency
" This is awesome. You've uncovered new details for the investigation I wasn't aware of "
U.S. Government Agency
" Your open-source news analysis is fantastic "
Foreign Ownership, Control, or Influence (FOCI) Review for a U.S. Agency
The challenge
- This U.S agency needed a commercial partner to augment risk assessments and due diligence risk reviews for U.S. businesses.
- Current approaches that often rely on spreadsheets and questionnaires have proven inadequate for risk detection and monitoring.
- A new framework was required for this seemingly intractable problem, driven by the need to gain a solid footing on risk identification that would foster resiliency amid ongoing and increasingly complex adversarial manoeuvre.
Our solution
Adarga created an assessment methodology based on best practices from across public and private sectors, developing a novel risk rating level formulated via:
- Analysis of open-source intelligence (OSINT) including worldwide news, social media, government publications, court records, and other publicly or commercially available data.
- Application of natural language processing (NLP) to extrapolate foreign country of concern (FCOC) entanglement with U.S. businesses.
- Identifying risk factors by leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) analytical techniques, highlighting entity and relationship edges / nodes for data-driven mapping of the U.S. businesses risks.
Outcome
- Illuminated risks associated with Foreign Ownership, Control, or Influence (FOCI) for select U.S. businesses.
- Laid the foundation to inform and train AI/ML models to improve efficiencies for assessing FOCI risks across both structured and unstructured data at scale.
Emerging Technology Protection Review for a U.S. Agency
The challenge
- Help a U.S. agency raise awareness of nation-state threats and help emerging technology sectors protect their human talent and cutting-edge research.
- Identify and understand convergent points between U.S. endeavours and strategic competitors in the race for technology leadership.
- Develop an evidence-based research methodology to identify and predict counterintelligence threats to the U.S. technology development ecosystem.
Our solution
Adarga developed a multi-step approach to identify, anticipate, and prioritise the most likely U.S. tech entities at risk:
- Analysed U.S. entities receiving U.S. government funding for tech research, as well as top venture capital (VC) investments.
- Mapped funding sources to ultimate beneficial recipients by leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) analytical techniques.
- Analysed open-source intelligence (OSINT) in English and native languages, including worldwide news, social media, government publications, court records, and other publicly or commercially available data to identify risk indicators.
- Prioritised risk using counterintelligence (CI) modelling and generated a threat score that was quantified empirically using an algorithm based on indicators mirroring proven USIC methods for assessing CI threats.
Outcome
- Illuminated the Top 30 U.S. tech entities with high CI threat profiles and provided a prioritised list for security outreach efforts.
- Provided 30 individual assessment reports on each of the entities, with key findings, link charts, and empirical data.
Intelligence Support for U.S. Agencies
The challenge
U.S. agencies face a daunting task in disrupting activities of illicit networks who are constantly shifting tactics to stay ahead of law enforcement.
Our solution
Our team:
- Developed an innovative approach which sought to identify and predict “operational patterns” of behaviour and vulnerabilities within Transnational Criminal Organisations (TCO).
- Leveraged artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) technologies to help identify patterns based on published law enforcement data (indictments and judgements) and mining open-source information.
- Exploited enhanced OSINT collection techniques to identify TCO “playbook” characteristics.
The results
- Adarga's TCO “playbook” has produced actionable intelligence for targeting illicit networks.
- Identification of 30 companies involved in specific illicit networks and their methodologies.
Macro Supply Chain Risk Analysis for a U.S. Think Thank
The challenge
Adarga was tasked by a leading U.S. think tank to help them understand the macro supply chain risks in several advanced technology sectors, particularly those relating to an interruption of supply caused by a breakdown in China-U.S. relations.
The conventional way of answering this is through qualitative analysis (particularly looking at political and economic policy), but this approach doesn’t take into account the huge amounts of quantitative data that exists to give far deeper and more rounded insights.
Our solution
Adarga's in-house team of experts on China-US relations, macro supply chain risk, and geoeconomics has extensive experience analysing supply chains and international competition in emerging technologies. They were able to accelerate and extend the conventional qualitative analysis by employing Adarga's Vantage software to draw on a vast range of multilingual sources – in addition to government sources – to get a more rounded international view of the risks in question.
The team was then able to augment this qualitative research with more objective data-led methodology. They employed models of national influence to better understand the precise dependencies and vulnerabilities across the supply chain, from raw material extraction, to component manufacture, to the import of finished products, and so derive unique insights including tailored scoring of the dependency and asymmetry of bilateral trade relationships across countries and over time.
Outcome
The analysis identified the significance of production and processing bottlenecks in two different lithium battery supply chains, LFP-dominant (lithium ferrophosphate) in the Chinese domestic market, and NMC-dominant (nickel/manganese/cobalt) outside China.
The team analysed the degree of influence and dependence of China and the U.S. on lithium products from Chile, used primarily for LFP batteries, to identify implications for supply chain dependencies as U.S. manufacturers shift to LFP batteries. This was understood in relation to the Chinese government’s prioritisation of the electric-vehicle sector and Chinese and U.S. companies’ efforts to increase vertical integration close to lithium sources.
Adarga's data-driven supply chain analysis is today enabling more effective, more nuanced policy decisions thanks to its synthesis of dedicated metrics for national influence within supply chains based on quantitative data and qualitative analysis of the technology, as well as the investment landscape and government policy. This analysis goes beyond simplistic measures of a country’s influence over a given supply chain to assess the interdependence of countries and companies at the levels of production, and of bilateral trade in specific commodities throughout the supply chain.
Measuring Chinese influence across Southeast Asia for a European Government Ministry
The challenge
A European government ministry was aiming to get a better, more nuanced understanding of Chinese influence in Southeast Asia and how it evolved over time – and they also wanted it measured.
The first challenge was defining ‘influence’ in a way that’s quantifiable and consistent. The second was developing the relevant metrics for influence that could be reliably formulated for each bilateral relationship based on available data. The third was to adapt these metrics to as comprehensive a range of national activities as possible, from government to trade to digital infrastructure.
Our solution
This was not the first time the team had encountered these challenges. Adarga has developed cutting-edge models of national influence, defined as ‘the capacity for Country A to comprise the autonomous decision-making of Country B’.
The model quantifies national influence across ten strands of national activity ranging from politics, natural resources, defence and security to economics and finance, technological innovation, culture and demographics.
This meant that our researchers were able to identify specific dependencies and the asymmetry of relationships, layered with expert qualitative assessments, ensuring both comparability across countries and sensitivity to country-specific circumstances.
Having employed Adarga Vantage to help conduct the widest possible qualitative assessment of the issue of Chinese influence, the team moved on to more quantitative analysis, using its proprietary models and data to measure and understand Chinese influence over ten Southeast Asian countries over a ten-year period.
Finally, Adarga's in-house expertise was augmented by its network of internationally recognised subject matter experts from across academia, business and politics.
The results
The results showed an increase in China’s influence across the board, particularly in Cambodia and Laos, and indicated that China’s influence was driving shifts in the regional balance of power.
This included the major role of digital infrastructure projects and technical standards that would tend to lock in dependence on China; the emergence of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore as a regional economic counterweight to China; and resistance to Chinese political influence in the Philippines and Vietnam.
Adarga's scoring system identified a significant increase in Chinese influence over Thailand (economically, militarily, in science and technology, and culturally) following the 2014 coup and the associated diplomatic distancing of the USA.
Since receiving the analysis, the ministry in question has been using it to make better decisions based on a more systematic understanding of China’s relations with Southeast Asia, describing the ARI’s approach and findings as "a blueprint for our work".
Helping a European Government Ministry to Balance National Security with Economic Opportunity
The challenge
Like many Western governments, one customer was facing a major policy challenge – how best to balance national security concerns with its extensive economic engagement with China.
Adarga helped them identify two specific requirements: a replicable framework for decision-making, supported by a dedicated research tool that would facilitate rapid familiarisation with relevant policy areas for experts and non-experts, and allow more effective communication of this across government.
Our solution
Adarga has deep subject-matter expertise on China’s international economic priorities and Western-China relations, and is able to draw on an international network of experts from industry, policy, and academia. Combined with their close familiarity with using Adarga’s Vantage software for research on China and Western-China relations, this enabled the team to identify what would be required of an effective decision-making framework and illustrate its utility through a case study of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Adarga was also able to show how Vantage could be effectively deployed across government as a policy-relevant research tool, allowing the user to rapidly search across large volumes of unstructured data from a wide range of English, Chinese and other language sources.
The results
The outputs included a demonstrable workflow for decision-making and associated research based on a dedicated Vantage environment, alongside a report illustrating the model itself. Adarga also provided the Belt Road Initiative case study, which would help others across government understand how to use the frame-work and the research tool, as well as the benefits of doing so in terms of their day-to-day work.
The research yielded a number of unique insights, including a breakdown of Western and Chinese rhetoric around ‘decoupling’ and ‘derisking’, which helped identify key points of political divergence.
Overall, the report developed a decision-making framework based on conditions of possibility for specific policy decisions. Taking an original problem statement from the customer regarding the potential for a Western equivalent to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the team identified the reliance of the BRI on China’s current account surplus and the lack of this on the part of the customer country and its allies.
The customer was therefore able to conclude that countering China’s influence via the BRI would not be best facilitated by trying to replicate it.